We always take a look at the home underdog first, especially in conference games and even more so in openers that are within the conference. That being, the home underdog has questions coming into the season and while some may have been answered during fall practices, they are not the right ones to be looking at a play on the Pirates right now. The defense brought back only two starters from last season and things are not getting better heading into the regular season. The defense lost the entire front seven to graduation and while there is experience coming in, there is not a lot of experience. The defensive line has already been hit with injuries and players are being shuffled including 215 pound linebacker Marke Powell being moved to defensive end. Senior Wes Pittman, a former walk-on wide receiver, is now going to start at linebacker. Basically, it is a mess right now and the unit that stopped the potent Tulsa offense will have trouble doing so now. The Golden Hurricane bring back nine starters to an offense that finished 35th in the nation in total offense and 44th in scoring offense. Those rankings are not bad but considering Tulsa led the country in total offense in 2007 and 2008, last season was a major disappointment. The good news is that most everyone is back including quarterback G.J. Kinne as well as six of the top seven receivers. The offensive line gave up 43 sacked, second most in the nation, but the experience will pay dividends in 2010. On the other side, the Tulsa defense has no where to go but up. The Golden Hurricane finished 85th overall and 74th in scoring and there is not a whole lot of reasoning to believe there will be a ton of improvement. They do bring back three of the top four tacklers and cornerback Charles Davis returns to the lineup after missing last year with a torn ACL. Even with this, I don’t see huge strides and I don’t see it happening against the Pirates in the Air Raid offense. Head coach Ruffin McNeill has brought in this new system from his days at Texas Tech and while new systems take time, all indications are that this one is already firing on all cylinders. The Pirates racked up 664 yards of offense as quarterbacks were 32-50 for 541 yards and seven touchdowns. Starting quarterback Dominique Davis looked good and he has a ton a talent to throw too. The argument is that it was a controlled scrimmage but the defense faced is similar to the one they will see on Sunday. Both offenses should have no problem carving through the opposing defenses here as the experience of Tulsa is big over the inexperienced East Carolina defense. On the other side, the Pirates have something working already and Tulsa has no idea how to prepare for it which is a big lift for the offense. 10* Over Tulsa Golden Hurricane/East Carolina Pirates

For both teams, there is a lot that needs to be replaces from last year’s teams. Troy has to break in a new quarterback as Levi Brown is now in the NFL after becoming the prolific passer in Sun Belt Conference history. Also needing to be replaces are eight starters on defense including six of seven players at the first two levels. The good part about the Trojans situation however is that instead of replacing bodies, they will be reloading as the roster consists of 27 JUCO or four-year transfers. The situation is not as good for Bowling Green. I am a fan of head coach Dave Clawson as he was solid at the I-AA level and he is a great offensive mind. He was fortunate in his first season to have the best quarterback/receiver combo in the conference in Tyler Sheehan and Freddy Barnes but both have departed leaving a massive gap in the offense. In total, only eight starters are back on both sides of the ball and it looks at though eight freshman and sophomores with little experience will be expected to contribute right away. Troy is expected to once again contend for the Sun Belt title despite the off-season losses and the pivotal game is going to be a Tuesday night showdown at Middle Tennessee St. First things first however. This is the lone non-conference home game for the Trojans and while it may not seem like a big one, this team has payback in mind. They went to Bowling Green last year on opening night and were beaten by 17 points as seven-point favorites. It is time to avenge that embarrassing loss. One huge advantage at the quarterback position for Troy is that the Falcons have no idea what is coming at them. Trojans head coach Larry Blakeney has settled on a starting quarterback to replace Brown but because of the differences between junior Jamie Hampton and redshirt freshman Corey Robinson, Blakeney thinks it might be better to keep that information to himself. Blakeney said he hasn't told the team who the starter is, adding that “bloggers” and others with Internet access would spread the word. Bowling Green’s productivity on offense will hinge upon an inexperienced quarterback taking over the reigns and directing a spread attack that will involve working with a group of wide receivers also limited on game-day experience. In total, 22 seniors, 16 of them starters, will be missing. While experience is at a minimum, a home game to start the season would have been huge. Instead, Bowling Green heads to one of the tougher places to play in what is expected to be a raucous crown at night. The Trojans are a perfect 10-0 at home over the last two years and going back three years, they are 14-1 and as far as covering they are 11-3 ATS in the 14 lined games at Veterans Stadium. 10* Troy Trojans

We were on the wrong side of this game last season but we will come back with the Eagles in this revenge game. Eastern Michigan has no where to but up following a 0-12 season a year ago. Granted this team is not going to be contending for the MAC Championship unless things really turn around but the Eagles are going to be a good play early in the season based on last year’s results because that is where we get our value from in these first few games. Taking a look at the meeting from last year we see that Army won the game by 13 points but outgained the Eagles by only 85 total yards. Win the outright win, Army covered the 3.5 points it was receiving and now a year later with the game also being played in Ypsilanti, the Black Knights have gone from underdogs to big favorites and it is too big of an overadjustment in my opinion. The Black Knights completed a 5-7 season in 2009 which was their 14th straight losing season and they have not improved this much. Eastern Michigan sophomore quarterback Alex Gillett returns after being forced into action as a freshman in 2009. Gillett played in nine games, including three starts and threw for 763 yards and three touchdowns and finished second on the team with 484 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Those certainly are not great numbers but it does give the offense a leader with some experience this season after being thrown into the fire a year ago. Army does bring back a lot of experience on both sides of the ball and it will once again be running the triple option on offense. A year ago it was bad news for the Eagles as Army racked up 300 yards on the ground and that set the tome as Eastern Michigan finished dead last in the nation against the run. The good news is that the defensive front is deep this season with more experience as well as the addition of four JUCO transfers. Louisville transfer Latarrius Thomas adds an anchor for the secondary. Last season, the Army defense keyed the victory, forcing three turnovers and limiting the Eagles to just 223 yards of offense. The defense finished as the 16th best in the country which was a very solid ranking but the schedule played a big part of that as the slate was littered with bad teams. Leading tackler Andrew Rodriguez leads a solid linebacking corps but he is questionable this week with a back injury. Patience will be the key for the Eagles as will not turning the ball over like they did last season. Eastern Michigan falls into a solid contrarian situation as well. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that allowed 425 or more total ypg on defense and returns with an experienced quarterback as starter. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1992. 8* Eastern Michigan Eagles

The days when Miami Ohio used to rule the MAC are long gone as the RedHawks have gone 2-10 or worse in three of their last four years. They should be a much better team this season with 19 starters returning but playing a team from the SEC is a different challenge. Actually they played Kentucky last season and that resulted in a 42-0 loss but this is obviously a bigger step up in competition. In order to play the total, we have to figure out what will be the matchup edges on both sides. As for the RedHawks, I expect this offense to be much better while the weakness of the Gators is their defense. Last season they were forced to start a freshman at quarterback and while Zac Dysert threw more interceptions than touchdowns, he did throw for more that 2,600 yards while completing 61.6 percent of his passes. His upside is huge and he has his entire offensive line back as well as the running backs. Florida is going to tough to penetrate but with only five starters back, it enables some early opportunities. As for the Florida offense, it is not going to miss a beat with the loss of Tim Tebow at quarterback. John Brantley has never made a start he is a player and he is going to flourish in this offense. As a backup last season, he completed 75 percent of his passes for 410 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He gets to play behind three returning starters on a massive offensive line as well as having playmakers at running back and wide receiver to take off some of the pressure. Even though there are only six starters back on offense, the RedHawks will have no answers for the Florida speed on offense. Miami has nine players back on a defense but this was a defense that finished 107th in the nation in scoring defense and that came against a cupcake schedule for the most part. While the offense was unable to run the football, the defense for Miami had trouble stopping it, as opponents gashed the RedHawks for 186.9 ypg. That is going to set up the pass in a big way. Since Urban Meyer took over as head coach, the Gators has piled up the points in the first two weeks of the season prior to their game with Tennessee. In the first five years under Meyer, Florida has averaged 45.7 ppg over those 10 games. This is actually somewhat skewed as the competition has been weak with the exception of one game against Miami-Florida where it scored 26 points. Take that out and the average goes to 47.9 ppg in the other nine games and Saturday’s game against the RedHawks fits those opponents. The Gators have won 20 consecutive season openers and their last 13 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium by an average of 39 ppg. They've also won 15 straight over unranked opponents, while Miami has been outscored by an average of 28 ppg while losing five in a row to Top 25 teams. Those types of scoring discrepancies point to an easy ‘Over’ that Florida could easily get on its own. 10* Over Miami Ohio RedHawks/Florida Gators

This may be a lot of points to be laying for a road team but we have to remember this is not a road game for Colorado. As usual, this game is being played in Denver at Invesco Field. Looking back as last year’s meeting, the Buffaloes were favored by 10.5 points and lost outright to Colorado St. This gives us a few situations where we can come back with Colorado this year and have the value side as well as the far better team side. Being a rivalry game, it heightens those aspects. I for one do not like giving up a lot of points in a rivalry game, especially when the series has been as close as it has. Colorado has won only six of the last 10 meetings and of those six wins, only two have been by double-digit. But we are talking different years with different Colorado St. teams, ones that were much better than this year’s edition. Granted last year’s team was pretty bad but the Rams will be taking a step backward as there are key areas that will lead to a slow start. While the Rams are getting worse, the Buffaloes are getting better. Head coach Dan Hawkins has had a rough go of it in his first four years, putting together a 16-33 record and that fact that he is here for a sixth year is surprising to me. However, this is arguably his best teams since his arrival in Boulder and this first game is potentially the biggest in his five years as a win gets things rolling while a loss puts him back on the hot seat. The personnel is in place for a surprisingly successful season. One of the big factors going into the matchups of this game is the offensive line. Last season, the Rams offensive line was one of the most experienced around but it the complete opposite this season as the Rams bring back only one starter and in total, there are only 30 career starts on the whole depth chart. This is a problem no matter what players are counting on the line but when you have a true freshman at quarterback, it only accentuates the problem and that is the case with the Rams. Injuries and coaching changes hurt the Colorado offensive line a year ago but in 2010, it is going to be a strength. The Buffaloes return nine players to the unit, all of which have some sort of starting experience and they have combined for 79 starts. This will give Colorado a big advantage in the trenches as its running game will be bolstered with this year of added experience as will the passing game that is upgraded by starter Tyler Hansen who won the starting job over coach’s son Cody Hawkins. Making matters worse for the Rams is that projected starters at defensive end, Cory Macon and Zach Tiedgen, are out for the season. That hurts in a big way. Conversely, the experienced defensive line for Colorado should push around the offensive line of the Rams all day long. Play against teams in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with four or more straight losses and which won 25 percent or less of their games. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +21.6 ppg. 9* Colorado Buffaloes

It is revenge time for Fresno St. which went to Cincinnati last season and lost to the Bearcats by eight points. That setback seemed to energize the team as the loss dropped it to 1-3 on the season but instead of folding, the Bulldogs went on to win seven of their next eight games before losing in the New Mexico Bowl to Wyoming. That should serve as a motivator along with the revenge factor to try and get off to a good start this season. Fresno St. has won six straight openers. Cincinnati is coming off a magical season where it went 12-0 during the regular season before running into a peeved off Florida team in the Sugar Bowl and the Bearcats were crushed. It was not the end they wanted for sure and while things will not be nearly as good this year, they won’t be that bad either. The thing is that is may take some time for this team to find its chemistry after losing 11 starters from last year including the quarterback, leading receiver and most of the defensive line. While Cincinnati needs to replace most of the players in the trenches, the Bulldogs get everyone back, which may or may not be a good thing. I think it is a very good thing despite finishing 111th in rushing defense last season as an added year is always beneficial. The team and coaches made a trip to Fort Worth in the offseason to study TCU and if they can get anything from that, it could be a vast improvement and that will be a big boost. The Bearcats offense will look different in personnel and may look different in philosophy as they are actually going to try and speed things up even more. New head coach Butch Jones will be bringing the Central Michigan style to Cincinnati and while it has a chance to pop, it will take some time. New quarterback Zach Collaros was awesome in taking over for the injured Tony Pike and while he will likely shine in the new offense, it will take some time with the new receivers and system. While the Bulldogs return four starters along the defensive line, they return every starter across the offensive line as well and that is a massive edge. While Fresno St. lost NFL first round draft pick Ryan Matthews at running back, there is still plenty of talent in waiting. You can put a lot of inexperience back there and behind that offensive line, there will be success. Quarterback Ryan Colburn had an excellent junior season and can flourish even more this year with all of the experience around him. Fresno St. has been a money-burner in recent home games and that is actually giving us some value here. The Bulldogs have not covered a homer game since 2007, going 0-8-1 ATS the last two years and you can be quite sure the public and the linesmakers are well aware of this trend. Despite the early consensus lining up on the Bearcats, this line has done a complete turnaround and Fresno St., which opened as underdogs, is now the chalk in a classic reverse line movement situation. 9* Fresno St. Bulldogs

Vanderbilt was going to struggle again this season but the Commodores are now further behind the eight-ball. The sudden retirement of head coach Bobby Johnson on July 14th put this team in a massive hole and coming off a 2-10 season, that is the last thing they heeded. Newly hired head coach Robbie Caldwell is no rookie but he was thrown into a very tough position and one that may not sort itself out until later in the season when his young team finds some chemistry. Northwestern is not without its own issues but the Wildcats are in far better shape. Replacing all of the playmakers on offense may seem like a problem but there has been a lot of depth added to this team by head coach Pat Fitzgerald that the cupboard is not bare. The Wildcats have been to a bowl game in each of the last two seasons only to lose both of them in overtime. The goals are the same again and in this game, they match up very well in strength against weakness on both sides of the ball. Success revolves around the play of the lines, both offensively and defensively, and Vanderbilt is short on both as it has to replace the entire offensive line as well as three of the four on the defensive front. On the other side, the Wildcats bring back their entire offensive line as well as half of the defensive line. The real strength for Northwestern on defense is its linebacking corps and while the weakness is going to be in the secondary with three new starters, that is not going to hurt in this matchup. Caldwell announced that his starting quarterback would be junior Larry Smith who started nine games last year before a hamstring ended his season. Smith completed just 46.7 percent of his passes last season while throwing for only four touchdowns and tossing seven interceptions. The Commodores hope to have running back Warren Norman, the SEC Freshman of the Year, playing despite having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee last week. Even if he goes, he is not 100 percent. For the Wildcats, Dan Persa saw limited action at quarterback last season but was pretty solid in the time he saw. Saturday may be his first start, but Persa is no novice to Northwestern’s spread attack. He played most of the second and third quarters of the Wildcats upset of then-No. 4 Iowa last season and threw the go-ahead touchdown pass. He ran for 67 yards on 17 attempts against Iowa and he will be a duel threat. A balanced offense will be on display. On a roster with 55 freshmen, redshirt freshmen and sophomore players, it is safe to say this is going to be a rebuilding season for Vanderbilt. On the flip side, expectations are high once again for Northwestern. The Commodores fall into a solid negative situation as well. Play against teams in the first week of the season that finished the previous year with four or more consecutive losses and overall had a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Northwestern Wildcats

College football is upon us and no one is happier than Fargo! He enters the first Saturday of the year on a SIZZLING 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%) CFB run going back to the start of 2010! He is planning on a MASSIVE Saturday which is highlighted by a game that spells B-L-O-W-O-U-T! Join him for his Revenge BLOWOUT of the Year and CASH with ease! If you need a huge ROUT, this is it!

This line is going through the roof. Pac Ten against MAC seems like a no-brainer and the public is buying into the fact that Pac Ten is 12-0 all-time against MAC teams. This includes Arizona going 2-0 over the last two seasons but both of those games were at home. The Toledo offense, despite losing quarterback Aaron Opelt and second leading receiver Stephen Williams, is going to be a potent unit once again. Toledo will utilize a spread offense again this year by stretching the field with multiple wide receiver sets and implementing the running game once the defense adjusts. The Rockets return three of the other top receivers including Eric Page who led the nation among freshman with 82 catches for 1,159 yards. It will be up to quarterback Austin Dantin to move the offense and he played well in starting three games for the injured Opelt as a freshman. The offensive line is pretty solid, and it all starts with senior center Kevin Kowalski. He is one of four returning starters on the line who combined have a total of 100 starts under their belts and that experience is huge. The Wildcats lost defensive coordinator Mark Stoops to Florida St. so there could be some transitional issues on that side of the ball. Arizona brings back only four starters on the defense but it lost its top four tacklers including two All-Pac Ten players; cornerback Devin Ross and safety Cam Nelson. The weakness is at linebacker and defensive tackle and being vulnerable up the middle is never a good thing. That vulnerability then opens up opportunities over the top when a defense is forced to lean forward anticipating the run. It is going to take time for this unit to come together. The Rockets losing season a year ago can be attributed to the defense that allowed 37.7 ppg, 116th in the nation. There is no where to go but up and that is the expectation this year. Head coach Tim Beckman was a defensive coordinator at Oklahoma St. and a secondary coach at Ohio St. so he knows his defense and his plan is to revolve the team around that unit. The problem last year was it was his first season and it was a new system. Now the system has been in place and it will be more effective. In the off season, a great deal of emphasis was placed on helping the defense to improve their performance from last season. It's expected that the return of senior cornerback Desmond Marrow coupled with the leadership of linebacker Archie Donald should help. The Wildcats should improve their offense this season as it was ranked 58th and 61st overall and in scoring respectively but how much will it improve? The athleticism of the Rockets secondary should allow them to keep pace with Arizona's receivers. Arizona is just 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as favorites between 10.5 and 21 points and it is 1-4-1 ATS as road favorites over the last two years. Toledo has always been a solid play at home and it is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog. The Rockets have hosted six BCS schools since 2001 and are 5-1 SU and ATS. 9* Toledo Rockets

We took care of a contrarian total last night as Colorado and Philadelphia flew ‘Over’ the total despite numerous public trends that were favoring the ‘Under’. We will be using the same rationale tonight as everything seems to point toward another low scoring game but the value goes the other way in this contrarian viewpoint. Tampa bay has gone ‘Under’ in five of its last six games so recent history players will look at that and go with the flow. The problem with that however is the fact that all six of those games were played at home where the Rays are 39-28-2 to the ‘Under’ on the season. Conversely they are 33-28-3 to the ‘Over’ on the road and while that is not a huge high scoring percentage, it is enough to show the differences. Tampa Bay games average 9.6 rpg on the road compared to 8.2 rpg at home. Baltimore is just the opposite. Its games average 8.5 rpg on the road and 9.1 rpg at home. Even though the majority of home game have gone ‘Under’, it is only a difference of five games, while on the road, the ‘Under’ has come in 15 more times than the ‘Over’. Prior to the last two games against the Red Sox going ‘Over’, the Orioles had gone ‘Under’ in six straight games and that can also be playing into the value. Matt Garza has been outstanding this season and outstanding of late. He has tossed three straight quality starts after a rough patch of inconsistencies. He has dominated Baltimore for the most part as the ‘Under’ is 7-2-1 in his last 10 starts against the Orioles and that adds value since only one of those 10 games had a total of less than nine. The Ray’s have gone ‘Under’ in four of his last five starts but that is mostly due to poor run support as they have scored three runs or fewer in each of those four games. That changes tonight. The Orioles counter with Kevin Millwood who has actually been pitching better of late. He has tossed quality outings in four of his last five starts and run support has been a problem as well. Baltimore has lost eight of his last nine starts as it has scored four runs or fewer seven times and two runs or fewer five times. This has led to the ‘Under’ coming through in five of his last six trips to the hill. In Millwood’s last 11 starts, only once has there been a total posted less than nine. Again, that is value here. The ‘Over’ is 6-2-1 in the Rays last nine games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game and the ‘Over’ is 18-9 in their last 27 road games after one or more consecutive unders this season. Also, the ‘Over’ is 6-1-1 in Garza’s last eight starts as a favorite between -151 and -200. On the other side, the ‘Over’ is 6-2-1 in Millwood’s last nine starts against teams with a winning record. 9* Over Tampa Bay Rays/Baltimore Orioles

While it is a big game for Utah, it could be even a bigger game for Pittsburgh which is favored to win the Big East Conference and is considered a darkhorse in the National Championship race. It will all revolve around the quarterback position, which is a concern going into the season, but all indications are that it will be fine. Sophomore Tino Sunseri won their battle in the spring and while he got minimal experience in his freshman year, he played well completing 10-17 passes for 114 yards and two touchdowns. The offense revolves around the running game and that is a matchup advantage here. Dion Lewis ran for 1800 yards and 17 touchdowns as a true freshman last season and his number will be called quite often. Defensively, the Utes have a strong line and a secondary that is athletic, although not proven. Any success the Panthers have running ball will set up the passing attack and they have one of the nation’s top wide receivers in Jonathan Baldwin. After finishing second in the league in total and scoring defense, Pittsburgh has a good nucleus to work around and at least one budding playmaker at each level. The Panthers return Greg Romeous and Jabaal Sheard to their defensive line which led the nation in sacks in 2009 with 3.69 per game. They also return both safeties their secondary which ranked 49th in passing defense, giving up 213 ypg, and also return two linebackers. It is a very physical unit and one that matches up well with the Utes physical offense. One thing we need to look at and keep an eye on is this line. As of early in the week, the number was 2.5 in most shops and while we could have caught a 3.5 last week, we still could get some added value. Look for a +3 at a minimum and while I am not one to endorse buying points, buying a half-point could be recommended to get this key number. Utah is just 5-14 ATS under head coach Kyle Whittingham in September games and while he is a solid coach, he has shown to come out slow. Pittsburgh meanwhile is 8-1 ATS on road grass fields over the last three years. 10* Pittsburgh Panthers

I played on Washington in the opening week of preseason and a lot of it was due to the coaching of new head coach Mike Shanahan who is widely known for taking winning in the preseason pretty serious. You take a look at the Broncos past history in the final week of the preseason and you see a team that went out to win. This situation this week is quite a bit different however. Starting quarterback Donovan McNabb remains out and he is questionable for Week One of the regular season as well. That means Rex Grossman, the backup for McNabb, is going to be held out of this game for precautionary reasons in case McNabb has to in fact sit out that preseason opener. That put the quarterback rotation in the hands of John Beck and Richard Bartel, a rookie out of Tarleton State. While Beck and Bartel have been told that they will roughly split the playing time, the coaches have not yet told them who will be starting the game. According to Shanahan, they won’t tell them until just before the start of the game. That along with the rotation on the other side is playing into this lien but I feel it is still not big enough. As for Arizona, the quarterback rotation is much different. There is still a battle for the starting spot between Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson so both will be seeing a decent amount of action on Thursday despite this being the final preseason game. While they are going to be put in harms way, they are going to play hard and do whatever it takes to succeed. The Redskins are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 preseason games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and they fall into a negative situation favoring the Cardinals. Play against teams that have been outrushed by their opponents by 1.5 or more ypc during the preseason. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1993. 10* Arizona Cardinals

USC is a team in disarray and after the NCAA brought the hammer down on the Trojans, this season was going to likely be a tough one. However, despite playing for nothing I think USC comes out of the gates strong as simply as a matter of pride more than anything else. The team is going to likely struggle for the next couple years more so than this year because of the loss of future scholarships. This is a statement game for USC. Hawaii was on top of the world just a couple years ago as it boasted one of the best offenses in the country while putting together a combined 23-4 record in 2006 and 2007. Head coach June Jones decided to leave after the 2007 season and it has not been the same as the Warriors have gone 13-14 in the two years since under head coach Greg McMakin. Hawaii brings back just 12 starters from last season and a lot of the rebuilding spots are key positions. The Trojans offense should start right where it left off last season. They finished 55th and 64th respectively in total offense and scoring offense and those are not typical USC rankings. However they Trojans were hit hard with injuries and were also starting a freshman at quarterback Matt Barkley. Barkley was average but again, he was just a freshman and that year of experience will be a huge benefit this season. He has an experienced line in from and a great running game behind him. Head coach Lane Kiffin brought some baggage with him but he also brought in his father Monte Kiffin to run the defense. The stop unit was average as well but the front seven will be vastly improved after a year of inexperience set them back. The secondary is an area of concern as all four starters have to be replaced. However cornerback Shareece Wright, who was academically ineligible last season, is back for his senior season and is their best cover corner. Hawaii will be more than ready for this game, especially at home but top to bottom it cannot compete with the Trojans even though the team is thin with injuries and transfers. The Trojans also fall into a solid situation that has been profitable for years. Play against home teams that allowed a 58 percent or worse completion percentage and with five offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-4 ATS (89.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Trojans are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games. 3* USC Trojans

The NCAA season kicks off on Thursday and Fargo will have you covered from day one through the BCS Championship! He starts right where he left off last season as Matt started 2010 with a bang last season by going a SIZZLING 9-4-1 ATS (64.3%)! He continues his football prowess backed by TREMENDOUS 22-6 ATS (78.6%) Team Angles! Start the year with a TOP PLAY ticket!

After losing the opener of the series against the Dodgers behind the near no-hitter from Hiroki Kuroda, the Phillies bounced back the last two games as the bats came back to life early and often. Philadelphia continues to keep pace with the Braves in the National League East as it is four games back thanks to wins in five of six games on this roadtrip. This is a contrarian play as the Phillies have gone ‘Under’ in 10 of their last 11 games and that leads to our value with tonight’s total. The Rockies lost a tough one last night 2-1 to drop the series with the Giants and all three of those games were low scoring. That was not much of a surprise as they have now gone ‘Under’ in 10 straight on the road and with the three-game series all staying ‘Under’ that is also providing some value here. The Rockies are 33-30-1 to the ‘Over’ at home, which is certainly no edge either way but it has been more high scoring games of late so a return home will help here. The pitching matchup signals ‘Under’ as the two have combined to go 5-1 to the ‘Under’ over each last three starts. But again, we are going contrarian. Joe Blanton has tossed three straight quality outings including his last one which was on the road. The recent form is also part of the value given to this number and his overall road success, or lack thereof, is beneficial as well. Blanton has a 6.06 ERA on the road this season with only four of his 10 starts being quality outings. The Rockies counter with Jhoulys Chacin and he has pitched well since his return from the minors. He has allowed only one run in his last 14.2 innings and all three of his starts have stayed ‘Under’. He has been a predominately ‘Under’ pitcher this season with 10 of his 14 starts going low. However, it has been six of seven on the road and only four of seven at home. We catch some solid history for an ‘Over’. The ‘Over’ is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Colorado while the Phillies have gone 9-1-1 to the ‘Over’ in Blanton’s last 11 starts with a total between 9.0 and 10.5. Also, they are 12-3-1 to the ‘Over’ in his last 16 starts against teams with a winning record. The ‘Over’ is 10-4 in Colorado’s last 14 home games. 9* Over Philadelphia Phillies/Colorado Rockies

After losing the opener of this series behind the near no-hitter from Hiroki Kuroda, the Phillies bounced back last night as the bats came back to life early and often. Philadelphia continues to keep pace with the Braves in the National League East as it is four games back thanks to wins in four of five games on this roadtrip. We catch a solid number this afternoon as a team like this is normally overvalued based on the ‘must win’ aspects of it but that isn’t the case here. The Dodgers are just playing out the string as they are nine games back of the Padres in the National League West. Had they been playing better, they might have been able to make a run as the Padres are falling apart but that has not been the case as Los Angeles is a distant nine games back. The Dodgers are solid at home and they put an effective pitcher on the mound this afternoon and both of those factors are helping to keep this line in check. The pitching has been outstanding for the Phillies and it continues today. After a rough opening start in his first game in a Phillies uniform, Roy Oswalt has been outstanding. He has put together five straight quality outings while posting a 1.53 ERA over those five games. Philadelphia is 5-0 in those contests and this includes a seven-inning shutout against the Dodgers four starts back. In 10 career starts against them he is 7-3 with a 3.11 ERA which includes eight quality outings. His teams are 26-6 in his 32 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record below .540. Los Angeles counters with Clayton Kershaw and he has been pretty solid all season. He has a 3.01 ERA on the season but Los Angeles is just 15-12 in his 27 starts which is a low percentage considering that ERA. He has been great at home even though his ERA is slightly higher than on the road but facing the Phillies is an issue. In six career starts, he is 0-4 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. The Dodgers are 3-7 in Kershaw’s last 10 starts against teams with a winning record. The Phillies are 13-3 in their last 16 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game and they fall into a great pitching situation. Play against home teams with a moneyline between -100 and -150 starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs last outing going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games. This situation is 48-29 (62.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Philadelphia Phillies

The Mets have dropped the first two games of this series and they look to salvage a game before the series finale tomorrow night. In the first two games, they were completely outpitched and subsequently lost by a combined score of 18-5. The pitching has been pretty solid all season long as the team ERA of 3.68 is good for fifth best in all of baseball. The hitting has been a different story but we could very well see those bats wake up tonight. The Braves have now won four straight games and they continue to dominate on their home field with a baseball’s best 48-18 record at Turner Field. That is a tough record to go against but because it is so good, we get value on the road team in almost every game played there and we need to pick those spots with the best value combined with significant advantages in certain areas. The Atlanta pitching has been the backbone all season but it has slipped as the ERA is a below average 5.13 over the last 10 games. I believe the Mets posses the pitching edge tonight despite what the vast majority will think. It has been a tale of three seasons for Mike Pelfrey. He started the season by completely dominating the opposing hitters as he had a 2.23 ERA though his 13 starts but things started to turn. Over his next 10 starts he posted a 7.30 ERA which included a couple quality efforts but mostly it was all blowups. He did something to turn it around as he has now tossed four straight quality outings while posting a 1.20 ERA. He has been average against the Braves this season but has a 3.65 ERA in two starts at Turner Field. The Braves counter with Tommy Hanson who has had his ups and downs this year. While the Braves have been awesome at home, Hanson has been the most inconsistent of the bunch. While the Braves are 48-18 at home, they are just 7-7 with Hanson on the hill and that is no advantage at all. He has a 4.12 ERA in those 14 starts and he could be starting to tire as his innings are piling up. He has allowed 10 runs in 10 innings over his last two starts and he has not won since July 3rd. The Braves are 2-7 in Hanson’s last nine starts while the Mets are 12-3 in Pelfrey’s last 15 starts following a quality outing in his last start. Also, New York is 4-1 in its last five games after scoring two runs or fewer in its last game so the bounce back potential is there again. 9* New York Mets

After being the underdog in the first two games of this series, the Rockies are now the favorites and for good reason. Colorado won the opener of this series before dropping Game Two last night and that makes this game rather important. Colorado is seven games behind the slumping Padres in the National League West and while that deficit may not be able to be come back from, the Wild Card race is wide open. The Rockies are 4.5 games back with San Francisco being three games up on them. The Giants are hanging around in the division as they trail the Padres by four games but they have been unable to take advantage of the San Diego skid, which has now reached six games. San Francisco simply is not playing well and it has been unable to put any sort of run together. Since a four-game winning streak at the end of July and start of August, the Giants are only 11-15 in their last 26 games while winning consecutive games only three times. One of the reasons have been struggles from their ace. Tim Lincecum has hit a rough patch of late with four straight non-quality efforts. None have even been close to good as he has posted a dismal 9.00 ERA in those four games with the Giants going 0-4 in those games. He has had some trouble with Colorado this season as in two starts he is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.06 WHIP. Colorado has actually been his biggest nemesis throughout his career as he has the highest ERA against the Rockies of any team that he has made at least five starts against. Colorado goes with its ace Ubaldo Jimenez and after a small bump in the road, he is mowing them down once again. After a six-game stretch where he posted a 7.64 ERA, Jimenez has since tossed six straight quality starts while putting up a 2.57 ERA over those games. He has been a tough luck loser as run support has fallen off but this is the prime opportunity for the Rockies to gets the bats going. His 2.31 road ERA is best in the National League for all qualified starters. Colorado is 10-2 in its last 12 games following a loss as well as going 14-2 in Jimenez’ last 16 starts when coming off a loss in its previous game. 3* Colorado Rockies

Matt comes back on Wednesday with a 2-0 card on the bases including another MASSIVE underdog! His Ultimate Shocker Reports have been MONEY IN THE BANK all season long and these plays on +150 or higher underdogs have netted +117 Units YTD! He returns with another one for Wednesday that is backed by SENSATIONAL 23-6 (79.3%) Team Angles! Do not miss out on this HUGE ticket!