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Michael Alexander |
| Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres (MLB) - Jul 31, 2010 8:35 PM EDT |
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| Play: Money Line: -109 San Diego Padres Pick Title: MLB Free Pick - Florida vs San Diego |
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The Florida Marlins opened up the weekend series versus the Padres with a win last night and tonight will look for a second in a row when they send right hander, Ricky Nolasco to the hill. Nolasco has pitched well this season and is 2-1 his L3 starts with a 3.20 ERA. However, the Marlins are only 2-3 in his L5 starts verus the Padres.
It won't be easy for the Marlins to grab the win tonight as the Padres have made big money versus right handed starters at home this season. Their starting picther, Kevin Correia has also looked good posting a 3.75 ERA in his last two starts and beat the Marlins ealier in the year in Florida.
Supporting Trends: CORREIA is 17-7 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. FLORIDA is 6-17 (-12.5 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. CORREIA is 10-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons
You have a superior team, San Diego, listed as a short home favorite versus a Florida team that is only only 2-5 vs. San Diego. I'm taking the Padres in this one.
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Matt Fargo |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals (MLB) - Jul 31, 2010 7:15 PM EDT |
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| Play: Money Line: 182 Pittsburgh Pirates Pick Title: |
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This is a great value spot for the Pirates. Pittsburgh is having yet another horrible season as it is a miserable 30 games under .500 including 27 games under .500 on the road. The Pirates need to be played in spots and this is one of those spots as they are catching a great number. They were handcuffed by Chris Carpenter last night in a tough one-run loss but the offense gets it going again tonight.
The Cardinals are doing nothing overly spectacular as they are 3-5 over their last eight games but they are playing excellent at home and that is driving this number for the most part. On the contrarian side, the pitching matchup favors neither team and that basically turns this game into a toss up and at the crazy odds, St. Louis cannot be played.
Jeff Suppan has been safe to play against this season as his teams are 3-6 in his nine starts including the Cardinals going 2-5 in his seven starts since coming over from Milwaukee. He has a 6.18 ERA overall and is 0-6 so nothing has been going right. He did post a quality outing in his last home start but gave it right back next time out against the Cubs and I see more of that taking place here.
Suppan had a 5.40 ERA against the Pirates in three starts last season.
The Pirates Daniel McCutchen has been recalled from Class AAA Indianapolis to start Saturday and they are hoping for better results than his first time up. He has a horrendous 8.58 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance but some time down in the Minors has done some good. He went 2-6 with a 3.62 ERA in his last nine Triple-A starts so the production is definitely there.
Pittsburgh also falls into a solid underdog situation. Play against National League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 5.20 and 5.70 on the season after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This situation is 33-19 (63.5 percent) over the last five seasons and it is even stronger than that based on the underdog aspect. 3* Pittsburgh Pirates
Matt had his 10* Enforcer nullified Friday due to a pitching trade but he moves on tonight with another! He is back on Saturday with just one report but it is a MASSIVE TOP PLAY! This will be his first Enforcer play since going 2-1 with these GEMS last weekend and this one is backed by a SENSATIONAL 33-17 (66%) Power Situation! Start off the weekend with a BIG WIN!
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Steve Merril |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals (MLB) - Jul 31, 2010 7:10 PM EDT |
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| Play: Total: 8/-128 Over Pick Title: |
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FREE PLAY
It has been a rough few starts for Kansas City’s Zack Greinke as he makes his fourth straight start at home against the Orioles on Saturday night. His last time out, he gave up eight runs and eight hits in four innings of work against the Twins. Overall, he's 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts giving up 15 runs and 18 hits in his last 18 innings pitched. The righty took a no-decision against the Orioles back in May as Nick Markakis (4-13), Julio Lugo (5-12), Brian Roberts (5-10), Adam Jones (3-8), and Luke Scott (2-4) all hit Greinke well. Greinke is backed by a Kansas City bullpen that has an ERA close to 5.00 at home.
Baltimore’s Brad Bergesen continues to make starts despite being pretty bad this season. The righty is 3-9 with a 7.12 ERA in 16 starts. He's only averaging 5.3 innings per outing meaning a Baltimore bullpen that is already taxed should be involved tonight. The righty has given up 17 runs and 28 hits in his last 16.3 innings pitched. Bergesen lost to the Royals in Baltimore back in May after giving up four runs and 10 hits in 6.7 innings of work. Yuniesky Betancourt (3-9), Billy Butler (3-8), Jose Guillen (1-3), Chris Getz (1-3), and Alex Gordon (1-1) have good numbers against the Orioles starter. The Royals have gone Over the total in six straight games mostly due to bad pitching. The Orioles bullpen has an ERA near 4.40 on the road which has helped them go Over the total in five of their last six games. We expect another high-scoring game between the Orioles and Royals tonight.
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