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South Florida: Are They for Real?

Steve Merril
Steve Merril

Numerous documented national No. 1 finishes in NFL, NCB football, MLB baseball, NBA, and NCB basketball; Won the inaugural $100,000 Insider's Handicapping Invitational.
By:Steve Merril     Date: Oct 30, 2008
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By Matt Josephs for Steve Merril Sports

South Florida burst onto the scene last year and climbed as high as #2 in the national polls by midseason. They faltered down the stretch, losing four of their final seven games, but still garnered a respectable 9-4 SU record. This year’s Bulls team isn’t surprising anyone, but that didn’t stop them from starting the season with five straight wins. The team is now 6-2 overall, but we must still ask if South Florida is for real?

When looking at South Florida’s schedule there is not much to talk about except for a 37-34 come-from-behind home win versus #13 Kansas last month. Non-conference victories over UCF, FIU and NC State do not exactly strike fear into anyone. Clearly homefield advantage wasn’t enough to beat Pittsburgh as the Panthers ran and passed the ball with success, gaining 374 total yards in a 26-21 win as a 13-point underdog. Despite this result, South Florida’s defense is still ranked 11th in the country, including rank 8th against the rush. The Bulls have kept a solid defensive ranking, despite losing both of their cornerbacks from last year. Future NFL first-round pick George Selvie is back with 5 sacks this season, despite the fact he is double-teamed on regular basis.

Last year’s team was all about the defense. This year’s version is all about Matt Grothe. The 6-foot quarterback is a dual threat using both his arm and his legs to threaten opposing defenses. Grothe has accounted for over 300 yards of total offense five times this season. His worst game of the season statistically, outside of an effort against UT-Martin, came in their loss to Pittsburgh. The signal caller has a good TD/INT ratio with 14 touchdowns to five interceptions. Grothe has a stable of backs to hand it off to including Mike Ford, Moise Plancher, Benjamin Williams and Jamar Taylor. The Bulls rushing offense is ranked 41st in the country and is currently averaging 171 yards per game (4.2 ypr).

The wide receiver core is filled with talent as well whether it’s Jessie Hester, Taurus Johnson, AJ Love or Carlton Mitchell that are catching the passes. None of them has overwhelming numbers as Johnson averages the most receiving yards per game at 48.3, but overall the passing offense has been very efficient and averages 66.4% completions and 8.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 61.3% and 7.1 ypp). Overall, the Bulls are ranked 28th in the country in total offense and average 33.5 points per game and 5.9 yards per play.

South Florida has played a relatively easy schedule this year, but there are some challenges remaining which include road games at Cincinnati and West Virginia, plus home games versus inconsistent Rutgers and UConn squads. The lack of an offensive “go-to” guy outside of Grothe will ultimately hurt South Florida. They have put up high scores of 56, 41, 45 points so far this season offensively, but they’ve also had 17, 20 and 21 points in games as well. Last year’s squad used defense and Grothe to get to the Sun Bowl. This year South Florida is going to need a little more from the offensive side if they hope to make it to a better bowl game. Overall, the Bulls are a decent a team, but as far as the Top 20 is concerned, South Florida is not for real.


 

  Steve Merril

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